Good reads & charts - May 15, 2024

Trump praises...Hannibal Lecter?? Plus: Dengue fever, the NFL partnering with Netflix, and visiting Japan.

Good reads & charts provides an assortment of interesting articles and data that I have come across recently that do not warrant a full article and might not be related to something I have previously discussed, but I feel are worth larger consumption.

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What is Trump doing???

If you do nothing else today, watch this clip of Trump speaking at a rally in New Jersey this past weekend (the interesting part starts 30 seconds in).

I have so many questions.

1. Does Trump know Hannibal Lecter is fictional?

2. Hannibal is a “wonderful man”?

3. Does he think Hannibal, one of the most notorious serial killers in history (who is, again, fictional), is a good guy?¹

4. Why is he congratulating Hannibal Lecter?

5. Does he think Hannibal just died?

Alas, only Trump knows the answer to these searing questions.

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The lock-in effect, interest rates and American mortgages

A recent study by the Federal Housing Finance Agency tried to quantify the impact of rising interest rates on the American housing market. The results, while not surprising, are pretty eye-opening. (emphasis added)

In the United States, nearly all 50 million active mortgages have fixed rates, and most have interest rates far below prevailing market rates, creating a disincentive to sell. This paper finds that for every percentage point that market mortgage rates exceed the origination interest rate, the probability of sale is decreased by 18.1%. This mortgage rate lock-in led to a 57% reduction in home sales with fixed-rate mortgages in 2023Q4 and prevented 1.33 million sales between 2022Q2 and 2023Q4. The supply reduction increased home prices by 5.7%, outweighing the direct impact of elevated rates, which decreased prices by 3.3%. These findings underscore how mortgage rate lock-in restricts mobility, results in people not living in homes they would prefer, inflates prices, and worsens affordability. Certain borrower groups with lower wealth accumulation are less able to strategically time their sales, worsening inequality.

Source: The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates (FHFA)

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The spread of dengue fever