Monitoring 2025

Have we hit any Black Swans?

Not yet, but you never know what the rest of the year will bring!

Jul 19 •

Patrick O'Hearn

Chaotic tariff policy, mixed EV sales and other over/unders

Part 5 of my 2025 halfway point report card.

Jul 17 •

Patrick O'Hearn

Updates on Canada, France, Germany, and the UK.

Plus political violence in the US, in part 4 of my 2025 half-way point prediction report card.

Jul 15 •

Patrick O'Hearn

The first half of 2025 and key geopolitical hot spots

Part 3 of my 2025 report card

Jul 13 •

Patrick O'Hearn

Debt, interest rates, approval ratings, and Thunderbolts!

Part 2 of my 2025 prediction report card at the halfway point

Jul 10 •

Patrick O'Hearn

Evaluating my predictions on TikTok, the Cabinet, Elon, DOGE and a government shutdown

Part 1 of my 2025 prediction report card at the halfway point

Jul 8 •

Patrick O'Hearn

2025 prediction scorecard v0

Because I am nothing if not accountable.

Jan 13 •

Patrick O'Hearn

Ten Black Swan possibilities for 2025

These almost certainly will not come to pass, but who knows. If they did, they would be big.

Jan 11 •

Patrick O'Hearn

A grab bag of over/unders to preview 2025

M&A activity, FX rates, tariffs, EVs and border encounters.

Jan 8 •

Patrick O'Hearn

Some political stories to keep an eye on in early 2025

Change in Canada, Defiance in France, Uncertainty in Germany, Elon Musk and possible January 6th pardons...just some of the things to look out for in…

Jan 7 •

Patrick O'Hearn

What might happen, geopolitically, in 2025?

Previewing the next twelve months from a geopolitical perspective.

Jan 4 •

Patrick O'Hearn

Let's make some more predictions!

Another US-centric list, this time with two longer responses, a more rapid-fire section, and a couple light-hearted predictions to end it.

Jan 2 •

Patrick O'Hearn

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